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re-tired from everything…suspicios comment on the effects of the pseudo-new pension law

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traian-basescu.jpg

Preliminary considerations:

1. I am absolutely convinced that the actual amount of the pensions is very low, creating impossible living conditions for the pensioners.

2. I consider it doleful the setting of this debate. A public-media debate that turns out to be a war of online and televised declarations.

3. Even those who know me just a bit, can guarantee a Budapest-Toronto distance between me and PSD (the Romanian Social Democrat Party), which is mostly expressed by curse words, pejorative jokes and mental puking.

4. Although I consider myself a liberal (or libertarian) I am not a member or a truthful voter of PNL (the Romanian Liberal Party).

5. The actual context is campaign. The results of the elections for the European Parliament will be the first real and consistent input for the political parties (and their consultants). Although, it is not a priority for the parties, it is just an exercise. Moreover, not only the actual context is campaign – the whole context is campaign. The “competition” among some institutions and political parties and the enhanced media coverage (not only the political parties order surveys, but the TVs as well – make them public, comment and benchmark) led to an at least dihotomical public discourse focused on the election of present opinions and declarations.

Materials used: Interviews, Declarations and Press Releases from both (or not just both) sides.

Background information: too much to describe. Several changes in positions. Several changes of the proposal and several funding opportunities. Check always the latest, because there is the biggest gap. I think it is enough to say that the liberal party is fighting side by side with the social-democrats to give a raise that will be called by the President, who is still bluffing, and introducing in the public sphere another change: after dealing with communism, oligarchs it is time to change the paradigm of policymaking – a responsible and calculated policymaking should be the approach.

Comments:

1. We are discussing the wrong question: it is not a question of resource availability, it is a question of resource allocation and redistribution. Financial resources are available, but the sturcture for it to be presented is impossible to elaborate. The prognosis and visionary budgetary planning for 4 years is unavailable, and the President knows this.

As an interesting fact: the proposal was under the hands of Stefan Deaconu, not the hands of Bujor-Bogdan Teodoroiu. These names maybe aren’t that important, but maybe they are: so the Presidency held the proposal for 2 days at the Constitutional Committee, not the Economic and Social Policy Committee. This fact shows that the Presidency was interested to find constitutional errors in the document. The further economic analysis will probably come when all the requested documents arrive.

2. No one mentions the positive effects of the flat tax rate and the reduction of obligatory payments. Everybody takes as given.

3. The fight is for the votes of the pensioners, but it is obvious that this needs a construction, not 37.5%. PSD has this construction, so this party will gain the most from it. PNL shouldn’t do such things and shouldn’t gain electoral capital from this segment of voters. And shouldn’t vote and promote laws together with PSD in order to serve segments that are not a priority for them. I do understand that another unpopular step would kill this government, maybe the healthiest thing that could happen to PNL.

4. The positioning of the President as a great promoter of the education, as a partner and a decision-maker FOR education is a false one. It does not imply that other parties do not do this, at least to a similar extent. It was a very well conceived tactic in order to get 1-2% from the liberal party, because a classical liberal voter would say: why pensions? education is better…and PNL does not represent me in this decision. Who does?

5. The characteristics of the public discourses on this topic need a special positioning. The PM does not have this. He is rich, well dressed and more than 60% of the content of any declaration given by him is about development strategies and economic growth, not about social-democrat measures. And this is normal. PNL does not have any representative for the more leftist liberal approach.

6. It is an excellent communicational behavior towards the European Union (the Commission). A responsible President who stops giving campaign benefits once and for all (sic!).

Personal hunches (but mostly sureness):

1. PD had this proposition and law prepared for the period right before the campaign in 2008. Proposing the increased pensions from opposition, creating an image confusion and in case of incapacity to implement –> further punches on the government (if there was a PD legislative proposal the argumentation would be as follows: in the context of economic growth, how come there are no funds???) and absorbing voters from PSD.

2. The delay of the promulgation is a campaign activity, trying to postpone it somewhere ’till September. This way, it will be a political capital. PSD and PNL wanted to have the first effects directly in September, on the “paychecks” of the pensioners. But a late promulgation would hold the headlines for 1 week in an essential campaign period, where the President (and its party) will make a very good balance, promoting the enhancements given by this decision. Although, PSD (through the voice of Cristian Diaconescu) confirmed that on an eventual redirection to the Parliament, they will convoke an extraordinary session and in that day, the proposal will be sent back to the Presidency. This may undercut the efforts of gaining rapid and timely political capital for the President.

3. I am more than 90% sure that formal errors will be discovered in the documents requested, to have an official cover for the approach described in the 2nd point of this “chapter”.

But everything is fine, activity is booming.

Zee.

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Written by zoller

July 11, 2007 at 11:51 am

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